Over the past six years, telecommunication networks have diversified; new technologies combine Internet and mobility. But this diversification has not been equal and widespread when considering the global implications. Surveys by various agencies confirm that the extent of growth of some of the most significant technological innovations has been restricted by a variety of factors in some of the major countries affecting the information technology revolution.
Internet usage:
Asia claims the world's largest regional Internet market. With an estimated 437 million Internet users (a user penetration of 12 percent) by mid-2007, Asia was maintaining its lead over Europe (322 million) and North America (233 million). 83% of the French population has access to internet. As of June 30, 2006, France had 11.1 million high-speed Internet subscriptions. South Korea was continuing to dominate the area of broadband Internet access, leading the world and the region with its 84 percent of households having a broadband connection by end-2006. The two major technologies supporting broadband in Asia were DSL and cable modem. DSL was dominating by a factor of 2 to 1. By March 2007, there were almost 75 million DSL subscribers and around 39 million cable modem subscribers across the region.
Not surprisingly, Internet application in Asia continued to be led by the developed economies of the region - Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. This group has been joined by China. With a user penetration of 10.5 percent, China
had a massive 137 million Internet users by the start of 2007. (China's
CNNIC reported 162 million users as at June 2007.) The rural market in China is huge and computer penetration is practically zero. While only 0.3 per cent of China's Internet users live in the countryside, their numbers are doubling every six months, according to CINIC. But electricity supplies are not always reliable in the Chinese country side and phone lines reach only 47 per cent of rural homes according to government statistics.
India's current broadband subscriber base is still just about 2 million (November 2006), a far cry from the Broadband Policy which targeted 3 million connections by end of 2005 (falling short by 33% a year later). This is now set to change as the Government spearheads a strong broadband penetration into the country. The combined effect of a number of macro economic and social factors together with a large domestic demand seem poised to bring in a phenomenal growth in wireless broadband in India. As of last year, less than 2 per cent of Indian homes received broadband compared with 13 per cent in China, 8 per cent in Brazil and 3 per cent in Thailand.
According to local press reports, the overall number of Internet users in Brazil climbed from 20.9m in 2004 to 25.1m in 2005, a 20% year-on-year rise. In April 2006 there were some 13.4m Brazilians accessing the Internet from their homes.
Mobile phone users:
Within the past five years, there has been a significant increase in both the number of mobile phone users and households that have mobile phones and no landlines. In the United States alone, the percentage of adults in mobile-phone-only homes has increased from 7.7% to 11.8% between 2005 and 2006, according to the National Health Interview Survey. Outside the U.S., the mobile phone infrastructure has expanded throughout the world, creating a growing number of mobile phone users in Europe, Asia-Pacific and the developing countries. Steady expansion will continue to increase the number of mobile phone users.
According to a report by Informa Telecoms and Media (2006), 30 countries exceeded 100% mobile phone penetration, with countries such as the U.K., Sweden and Italy at more than 110%. This indicates that a portion of the population in these countries currently has two or more mobile phone subscriptions. French cell phone usage is finally catching up with the European average, topping 80 percent penetration in 2006.
According to the same report, mobile phone penetration in the U.S. is nearing 70% while the Asian leaders, Hong Kong and Taiwan, have reached a significantly higher rate of 125%.
Asia's mobile market has continued to grow strongly; having passed the one billion subscriber milestone in late 2006, the market was expanding at an annual rate of almost 30 percent into 2007. In India, mobile phone tariffs have dropped considerably— almost by 90 percent. In response to this, the number of subscribers has risen by 85 percent in each of the last few years. India's mobile revolution has already generated a cellular subscriber population of 143 million (as of December 2006). Adding in excess of 5 million subscribers per month, India is likely to cross the 250 million mobile population within 2008.
Mobile-phone use in Brazil has continued to expand dramatically over the past several years. Brazil had 92.38m mobile phones in use at end-May 2006, up from 86.2m at end-2005 and 65.6m at end-2004, according to the most recent statistics from the National Telecommunications Agency (Agência Nacional de Telecomunicações—Anatel).
Laptops and Wi-Fi:
The desktop/notebook penetration in India is still low. According to latest IDC India figures 5.8 million PCs shipped in CY 2006 compared to China’s 22 million. Analysts say that India has one of the lowest PC penetration rates in the world at 18 per 1,000. China is better placed with 61 per 1,000; Brazil has 142 per 1,000 and Russia 155 per 1,000. The dismal broadband subscriber figures can be attributed to the PC penetration. The overall Wi-Fi market in India is still in its infancy and is on the cusp of a period of sustained growth. Growth inhibitors such as lack of bandwidth, low penetration of laptops and PDAs are fading away and a buoyant device market is projected. It is projected that the laptop market will double for the next two years.
VoIP:
Traditional voice services are under pressure from VoIP, declining by 10% or more each year. The number of VoIP customers in North America increased 21%, to 6.9 million in the Q2 of 2006. VoIP penetration at contact centers and sales of related products are poised for significant increase by year end 2007, with 38% of contact centers currently researching and investigating VoIP. The U.S. penetration is 10 percent. In France it is on the order of 40 percent. Most French Internet providers already offer VoIP, a service that now has over 1.5 million customers. In Asia, more and more businesses were switching to VoIP as enterprise IP telephony sales in Asia-Pacific region grew at 39%, according to the Synergy Research Group.
In India, applications such as Voice over Wi-Fi (VoIP over Wi-Fi) continue to hold the key to even more turbulent market changes. But with VoIP being currently restricted by the TRAI(Telecom Regulatory Authority of India), VoWi-Fi is not yet a reality in India. Once the restriction is lifted, a proliferation of dual band Wi-Fi-cellular devices would happen.
Contrastingly, in Brazil, Government policy proactively encourages the development of new technologies. Computer penetration has tripled from a very low base in the past five years, and Internet penetration has also risen strongly, although both remain low by international standards. The VoIP market in Latin America will grow increasingly competitive. Of the 5.9 billion Latin American international calling minutes recorded last year, nearly 48% were attributable to VoIP, according to Insight Research.
Thus, the penetration of various technologies throughout the world is dependent on other existing technologies and also lean heavily on local political and economic factors. Whereas in the more developed countries, there is a scope for innovative technologies, the developing countries offer huge potential for the expansion of current user base.