There is no doubt that the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry has been and still is changing through time. The ICT industry is going at a fast pace as the products and services of the industry continue to be upgraded or replaced frequently. For ICT businesses to succeed they need to keep up and be up to date with what is going on in the industry, they also ought to be able to predict the future trend of their business relative to the future of the industry. This forecasting prediction helps to define organizational goals, missions, objectives, and future contingencies (Shaw, 2001, p. 117).

Good businesses in general create a strategic plan which includes industry trend forecasting. ICT businesses in particular know that their industry has a great effect on the economy as a whole. The ICT industry serves all of the other industries whether it be the agriculture, manufacturer, or health and medical industry. The ICT industry is in a strong advantage since the national economy is dependent on it. It is necessary to take into consideration the effect of the ICT industry on the national economy when forecasting the ICT industry trend (Shaw, 2001, p. 176).

Five Scenario Forecasting Model:

According to the James K. Shaw, the author of the book Telecommunications Deregulation and the Information Economy, forecasting industry trend should be at least for the next upcoming 10 years. However, some might argue that the ICT industry is changing so fast that a 5 year forecast rather than a 10 year is necessary to predict industry tend. Nonetheless, Shaw has created a 5 scenario theory to help forecast the industry which includes:

1. Service Explosion Model: a scenario that entails that the “raising demand for telecommunications products and services is met with an ever-increasing number of providers able to deliver state of-the-art services” (Shaw, 2001, p. 182).
2. Corporate Consolidation Model: “a scenario greatly feared by proponents of the TRA, in which initial deregulation inevitably promotes oligopolical restructuring” (Shaw, 2001, p. 182)
3. Consumer Customization Model: a scenario which entails that the consumers will “eventually determine the emerging shape of innovation to come: (Shaw, 2001, p. 182).
4. Price Implosion Model: a scenario that is concerned with the “decreasing prices for telecommunications goods and services” (Shaw, 2001, p. 190).
5. Short-Run/Long-Run Stability: this scenario predicts that turmoil in the beginning of the decade will be followed by long term stability (Shaw, 2001. 1982).

Shaw has applied these five forecasting scenario models to the telecommunication industry between the years 2001-2010. Since we are now in the year 2007, looking at Shaw’s forecasting predictions in general it has proven that his five forecasting scenario model is relatively true for our century.

Forecasting using the S-Curve:

Forecasting new trends and the end of old trends is a necessity for any company in the ICT industry in order to continue to survive. There are several tools that can help a company forecast the ICT industry trend. One tool that is well known in business is the S-Curve analysis. The S-Curve asserts that “product innovation and improvement should become the prime concern of market participants as they move from growth to mature markets” (Shaw, 2001, p. 127).

The S-Curves analysis helps in determining prospective market trends, it is done by “taking a rigorous approach to determining the limits of current technologies and the optimal time to “jump” to a new technology” (Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2005, p. 257-258). The leading companies, the ones who succeed in the ICT industry, are able to apply the S-Curve analysis and be able to determine the right time to “jump”, to switch, to change from an old to a new technology.

It is not easy for a company to determine whether it is the best time for the customer as well as the company to switch to a new technology. Many companies in the past have hesitated to make the “jump” and eventually lost the opportunity to enter the new market. This hesitation could have been causes for several reasons according to Shaw:

• A misinterpretation of market data;
• Reticence in taking on new business risk;
• Overlooking rising competition from alternative technologies;
• Failure to satisfy consumers during periods of expanding numbers of alternative suppliers (Shaw, 2001, p. 132).

Conclusion:

An ICT company nowadays must have a strategic plan that involves industry trend forecasting. The ICT industry is a competitive one, in a sense that companies within the industry need to keep up with its fast growing pace as new innovations and companies enter the market. To keep up, a company must use the proper tools that can help them predict future industry trends, which will eventually help the company to survive in this world of increasing competitiveness.

References

Blenkhorn, D. L., & Fleisher, C. S., (2005). Competitive intelligence and global business. Westport, CT: Praeger.

Shaw, J. K., (2001) Telecommunication deregulation and the information economy (2nd ed.). Norwood, MA: Artech House Inc.

Dr. Jay E. Gillette, a Ball State University professor in the Center of Information and Communication Sciences, explains in his leadership course: in the military the word “intelligence” means information. The military has a goal of gathering as much intelligence as possible. Intelligence is basically what puts anyone in a competitive advantage. The more a person knows and has intelligence meaning information, the more he or she is in a competitive advantage. The military uses intelligence to put them ahead of their enemies, ahead of other nations in general.

Gathering of intelligence depends on the knowledge management deployment and practice of the organization. The sooner a business can gather and use intelligence in its strategic decision planning, the better the chance of its survival in the industry. According to David L. Blenkhorn and Craig S. Fleisher, the editors of the book Competitive Intelligence and Global Business:

Just as the military uses intelligence for its survival, so do businesses and specifically the leaders of these businesses, use the proper intelligence to survive in this global economy. The successful leaders are those who practice and apply competitive intelligence in order to be ahead of their competition. They use intelligence to forecast and produce the best strategic plan for their organization. According to Dr. Gillette in his 2007 leadership seminar “A good leader is one who does strategic planning that proves successful.”

Strategic Intelligence

Competitive intelligence requires strategic intelligence. Dr. Jay Edwin Gillette explains in his article Strategy Development for the Information Economy: A Practical Guide to Coordinated Action through Time issued in the Annual Review of Communication, Vol. 59 in 2006, that strategic planning “is a set of inputs and management processes” which include strategic intelligence. Strategic intelligence according to Dr. Gillette is performed using the following actions: environmental scanning, situational analysis, and S W T O (Strengths; Weaknesses; Threats; Opportunities) analysis.

Environmental Scanning & Situational Analysis

Businesses should go into depth analyzing each and every one of these actions. In the area of environmental scanning, a business should be aware of its surroundings. People in the organization should be aware, with eyes open to gather information that is useful. “The challenge is to select, filter, and organize information from your global operating environment” (Gillette, 2006, p. 10). Dr. Gillette explains that this scanning of the environment should include the following dynamic areas: economic, technical, cultural/social, and political/legal. A similar list to Dr. Gillette’s environmental scanning dynamic areas is Sheinin’s list of intelligence criteria that affect the decision environment. He explains that the decision environments of companies are dependent on the following intelligence criteria: sociological, educational, economic policies and standards, political, and geographic (Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2005, p. 63).

For a company to consider competing in a market it should evaluate these environmental conditions of the market in both a narrow and wide/global scale. A company should use situational analysis which is “a close-up of the environmental scan” (Gillette, 2006, p. 11). A company should look at itself externally; it should see where it fits in, where it is positioned in the market. A company should ask itself: What are the external situations affecting our company? (Gillette, 2006, p. 11).

S W T O Analysis

SWTO analysis is one that businesses are usually familiar with. However, many might know the SWTO as SWOT. Dr. Gillette explains that he prefers to call this analysis as “SWOT” for the following reason:
It’s important to start with an inventory of our strengths, then weigh our weaknesses…from our weaknesses we have a clear view of threats to ourselves and our organization, and we can see where our strengths give us encouragement and protection…after an honest inventory of the previous elements, we can reckon our opportunities fairly and with confidence.

Dr. Gillette also explains that ending “with an emphasis on threats” is “defensive thinking” and that ending with an emphasis on opportunities is “calling for offensive thinking.” (2006, p. 11).

Forecasting

The ability to predict the future especially in the ICT industry is what makes a leading ICT company successful. Forecasting is essential for any business. Businesses that use competitive intelligence are the ones who are much more able to better forecast their survival and the future products that their consumers need or want. A company’s life cycle goes through what is known as the S Curve, in that S Curve a company reaches its growth and then goes to a mature stage, however, it is important for companies to improve their products and become more innovative to survive: “product innovation & improvement should become the prime concern of market participants as they move from growth to mature markets” (Shaw, 2001, p. 127).

Forecasting however, is not an easy task, nonetheless, there are tools that can help with forecasting such as the S Curve Analysis and the Scenario Analysis (Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2005, p. 258). Companies in the ICT industry are particularly concerned with competitive technology intelligence (CTI). They seek to understand and know technology trends and discoveries through the use of analytical techniques of CTI:
• Technology Prospecting: involves monitoring new technology developments.
• Technology Scouting: “identifying trends and business opportunities offered by various technologies”
• Patent Analysis: “identifying trends and patterns in patent data”
• Bibliometrics: “counting the number of time a certain technology is cited in various publications.”
• Technology Forecasting: “performing extrapolative analysis of current technologies”
• Scenario Analysis : “performing non-extrapolative analysis of future technologies”
• S Curve Analysis: “taking a rigorous approach to determining the limits of current technologies and the optimal time to “jump” to a new technology”
(Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2005, p. 257-258).

Conclusion

Competitive Intelligence is that each company needs to succeed in its economy. One must know the various ways of collecting relevant intelligence. Competitive intelligence produces strategic intelligence that can lead to the success of a company. Leaders in general should use competitive intelligence for the betterment their organizational strategic planning. Forecasting is an essential way to survive in a market. ICT companies in particular should use different ICT forecasting analysis techniques to survive in the industry.

References

Blenkhorn, D. L., & Fleisher, C. S., (2005). Competitive intelligence and global business. Westport, CT: Praeger.

Shaw, J. K. (2001). Telecommunications deregulation and the information economy (2nd ed.). Norwood, MA: Artech House Inc.

Gillette, J. E., (2006). Strategy development for the information economy: A practical guide to coordinated action through time. Annual Review of Communication (59).

Carl Frappaolo mentions in his book Knowledge Management that “it is perhaps the lack of a singular definition that has delayed the more wide-scale deployment of knowledge management” (Frappaolo, 2006, p. 8).

There is no clear-cut knowledge management definition out there. Many have attempted to define knowledge management, some from a business prospective and others from a philosophical point of view. However, Dr. Gillette explanation of what knowledge management is portrayed in his knowledge management scale which consists of: wisdom, understanding, information, data, fact, and phenomena (Gillette, 2002, p. 5).
None the less, Frappaolo defines knowledge management succinctly as being “the leveraging of collective wisdom to increase responsiveness and innovation” (Frappaolo, 2006, p. 8).

Leaders Adopting Wisdom

In the day an age, organizations need innovation and proper collection and exchange of knowledge especially within in order to prosper. Leaders who adopt knowledge management practices are the ones who succeed at the end. Leaders are characterized with having wisdom. Dr. Gillette uses wisdom on top of his knowledge management scale. He explains that “Wisdom tells us what to look for in data, facts and phenomena. It helps us create information” (Gillette, 2002, p. 7). He defines wisdom as “the ability to discern, to make judgments.” (Gillette, 2002, p. 10).

Leaders in general must make decisions; they must choose and decide between two things in which they apply judgment. “Executives and leaders are really in the decision business. Leadership requires judgment most of all…Every leader eventually asks for wisdom…wisdom makes a judgment between the differences” (Gillette, 2002, p. 10-11).

Making judgment between the differences is the key word. If leaders lead by example according to Tom Peters the author of Thriving on Chaos, followers of leaders are being taught something, in this case followers are being taught to apply wisdom, to choose the better choice. Looking at it from a moral development point of view, leaders choosing the better choice, acting and choosing moral behavior, send the wisdom message to followers who will then adopt and choose the same moral act as the leader.

To explain where wisdom lays exactly in moral development, Kohlberg explains that there are six stages to moral development and the more advanced stages are stages 5 and 6 where a person “becomes more aware that while it is well to live up to the rules of society, there are a variety of possible value systems. There is greater sensitivity to There is greater sensitivity to deciding what the rules should be in the first place” (Prince II, 1988, p. 487) a person starts to follow universal ethical principles, “which guide moral judgments and which even may conflict with existing societal values” (Prince II, 1988, p. 487). Two words relating to wisdom are mentioned deciding as well as judgments, thus we can say that wisdom is in the more advanced stages of moral development.

Knowledge Management as a Competitive Advantage:

Wisdom is based on information gathered, information that is understood. In today’s business world, it is wise to gather information that is useful and meaningful about the business and other businesses to be at a competitive advantage. Gathering and storing such information requires some application of knowledge management. The details of this gathering and storing is definitely a wide topic to get into. Nonetheless, as a wise leader one must see this competitive advantage to be ahead in the league, to apply new innovative ideas, to communicate effectively and efficiently within the organization. As Bill Gates puts it “knowledge management is nothing more than managing information flow, getting the right information to the people who need it so that they can act on it quickly” (Gillette, 2002, p. 12). This quick application is what the leader is thriving to accomplish in terms of both communication and innovation. The sooner the business gets this information, the sooner it is in a competitive advantage. The sooner it can launch new innovative ideas and products to the market.

Conclusion

As Dr. Gillette explained, understanding knowledge management is a complex matter. To further clarify this, Dr. Gillette’s knowledge management scale shows that knowledge management consistent of a few major components which includes wisdom. Applying wisdom knowledge is essential for any leader. Being able to decide, to choose from information is what a leader with wisdom does. Wisdom applied puts an individual leader and the business in a competitive advantage. Not only is wisdom applied by the leader, but also by the workers, the followers of the leader, who lookup to and adapt the examples of the leader. Thus, having wisdom is essential to knowledge management, which evidently reflects excellent leadership.

References

Frappaolo, C. (Ed.) (2006). Knowledge Management. West Sussex, England:
Capstone Publishing Ltd.

Gillette, J. E. (2002). A practical framework for understanding KM. In R.F. Bellaver &
J.M. Lusa, (Eds.), (2002). Knowledge management strategy and technology. New York: Argent.

Prince II, H. T. (1988). Moral development in individuals. In J. T. Wren, (Ed.), (1995).
Leader's companion: Insights on leadership through the ages. New York: Free Press.

This concept however is not new but rather thousands of years old. For example, the ancient Indian writer Kautilya was a famous strategic thinker who wrote in his 4th century book Arthashastra describing the duties of a king (leader) "In the happiness of his subjects lies his happiness; in their welfare his welfare; whatever pleases himself he shall not consider as good, but whatever pleases his subjects he shall consider as good” (Halsall, 1998).
For a clearer definition, the Greenleaf Center for Servant-Leadership describes servant-leadership as follows: “Servant-Leadership is a practical philosophy which supports people who choose to serve first, and then lead as a way of expanding service to individuals and institutions. Servant-leaders may or may not hold formal leadership positions. Servant-leadership encourages collaboration, trust, foresight, listening, and the ethical use of power and empowerment” (Greenleaf.org, 2002).

There are ten characteristics of a servant-leader that were identified by Larry C. Spears, the Chief Executive Officer of The Greenleaf Center for Servant-Leadership:
“1. Listening: …deep commitment to listening intently to others… Listening also encompasses getting in touch with one's own inner voice. Listening, coupled with periods of reflection, are essential to the growth and well-being of the servant-leader.
2. Empathy: The servant-leader strives to understand and empathize with others. People need to be accepted and recognized for their special and unique spirits…
3. Healing: The healing of relationships is a powerful force for transformation and integration. One of the great strengths of servant-leadership is the potential for healing one's self and one's relationship to others…servant-leaders recognize that they have an opportunity to help make whole those with whom they come in contact…
4. Awareness: General awareness, and especially self-awareness…helps one in understanding issues involving ethics, power and values. It lends itself to being able to view most situations from a more integrated, holistic position.
5. Persuasion: Another characteristic of servant-leaders is a reliance on persuasion, rather than on one's positional authority, in making decisions within an organization...The servant-leader is effective at building consensus within groups…
6. Conceptualization: Servant-leaders seek to nurture their abilities to dream great dreams. The ability to look at a problem or an organization from a conceptualizing perspective means that one must think beyond day-to-day realities…
7. Foresight: … enables the servant-leader to understand the lessons from the past, the realities of the present, and the likely consequence of a decision for the future…
8. Stewardship: Peter Block (author of Stewardship and The Empowered Manager) has defined stewardship as "holding something in trust for another."…
9. Commitment to the growth of people: ...The servant-leader recognizes the tremendous responsibility to do everything in his or her power to nurture the personal and professional growth of employees and colleagues…
10. Building community: The servant-leader…seek to identify some means for building community among those who work within a given institution” (Spears, 2002).

I see servant-leadership being used today in organizations that encourage and follow a democratic type of leadership rather than an authoritative one. Servant-leadership encourages work that serves the better good and brings positive change in society. Greenleaf says “the only way to change a society…is to produce people, enough people, who will change it” (Wren, 1995, p.22) thus we need to produce more servant-leaders in order to make change in our societies.

References:

Greenleaf.org (2002). What is servant-leadership?. Retrieved June 5, 2007 from , Robert
K. Greenleaf Center for Servant-Leadership Web site:
http://www.greenleaf.org/leadership/servant-leadership/What-is-Servant-Leadership.html

Greenleaf.org (2007, Winter). Greenleaf center timeline 1964-2005. The Servant Leader: Newsletter of
the Robert K. Greenleaf Center, 59, 3-4. Retrieved June 5, 2007 from Robert K.
Greenleaf Center for Servant-Leadership Web site: http://www.greenleaf.org/ServantLeader_Winter07.pdf

Halsall, P (1998, June). Indian History Sourcebook: The Arthashastra, c. 250 BCE .
Retrieved June 5, 2007 from Fordham University, Internet Indian History Sourcebook Web site: http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/india/kautilya1.html

Spears, L. C. (2002). On character and servant-leadership: Ten characteristics of
effective, caring leaders . Retrieved June 5, 2007 from , Robert K. Greenleaf Center for Servant-Leadership Web site: http://www.greenleaf.org/leadership/read-about-it/articles/On-Character-and-Servant-Leadership-Ten-Characteristics.htm

Wren, J. T. (1995). Leader's companion: Insights on leadership through the ages. New
York: The Free Press.

Lawrence Kohlberg of Harvard explains moral development through his cognitive development theory. He explains that there are different stages of moral development that is based on individual intellectual reasoning. A person’s level of intellect and experience as well as social influences determines which stage level he or she is in the moral development.

According the Kohlberg’s theory, there are six stages of moral development that are divided into three levels. The first level (stage 1 and stage 2) include the precoventional stages which consists of mostly children and a few adults. Stage 1 moral reasoning is based on a person’s fear of punishment. A child comprehends that doing the right thing is obeying authority and avoiding punishment. In stage 2, one’s moral reasoning is an opportunistic one, where moral behavior is decided based on personal interest. Most adults are in the second level of the moral reasoning which consists of the conventional stages of 3 and 4. In the third stage, one seeks the approval of others while in the fourth stage one finds that it is “an obligation to live up to one’s word, to do one’s duty, and to help maintain the social system” (Wren, 1995, p.486).

The last level consists of a few highly developed adults who are in the post-conventional stages of 5 and 6. In Stage 5, one “becomes more aware that while it is well to live up to the rules of society, there are a variety of possible value systems. There is greater sensitivity to deciding what the rules should be in the first place (Wren, 1995, p.487). Finally, in the last moral stage, stage 6, one starts to follow universal ethical principles “which guide moral judgments and which even may conflict with existing societal values” (Wren, 1995, p.487).

Kohlberg’s theory of moral development conclude that it is not the actual moral behavior which indicate a person’s level of morality but rather it is the quality of a person’s moral reasoning processes (Wren, 1995, p.488). Since this reasoning process depends on one’s maturation process and individual experiences, one can attain greater reasoning levels through new challenges and experiences thus influencing moral development. Even though there is moderate research evidence, leaders may influence moral development by providing their followers with the proper training, education, or experiences.

A more social and stronger approach to moral development is the social learning approach. This developmental theory approach is supported by stronger research evidence that was conducted by a few social psychologists including Albert Bandura. Moral development is influenced by the reasoning, perception, memory and other internal psychological responses to situational factors outside the individual (Wren, 1995, p.489).

Generally speaking, individuals learn moral principles by observing role models that have the power of reward or punishment such as parents, teachers, or peers. There are two main factors to social learning conditioning and imitation. Conditioning is the actual direct experience one encounters which has an effect on the individual. For example, a parent may punish and scold a child for steeling, this makes the child feel bad and the child associates this bad feeling to steeling, thus instilling the moral act of not steeling. Imitation in social learning is usually conducted by the observation of the individual of a role model. An observed role model is usually one that has power, status, control over reward and punishment, or has similarity with the observer (Wren, 1995, p489). For instance, one may observe his or her role model who has been rewarded for his or her behavior and thus aspires to conduct the same moral behavior of the role model even when he or she is not in the presence of the role model (Hoffman, 2001, p.127).

Usually the leaders in an organization are the role models. An individual’s moral development is influenced by a leader who leads by example demonstrating to others the desired behavior, an organizational leader who communicates expectations and consequences, and a leader who has control over reward and punishment, a leader who rewards ethical behavior and punishes unethical ones.

References:
Hoffman, M. L. (2001). Empathy and moral development: Implications for caring and justice. Cambridge University Press.

Wren, J. T. (1995). Leader's companion: Insights on leadership through the ages. New York: The Free Press.

Kouri, J. (2007, March, 28). ITT corporation guilty of illegal sales to China. Retrieved March 28, 2007 from The Conservative Voice, News & Commentary Web site: http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/23867.html

Perez, E., Karp, J, (2007). U.S. to probe outsourcing after ITT case. The Wall Street Journal, CCXLIC(72), A3.

Cauley, L. (2007, February 19). Future of Net phone firm Vonage hangs in balance. Retrieved February 22, 2007 from USA Today, Web site: http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2007-02-19-vonage-usat_x.htm
Fam, M. (2007). Verizon suit presses Vonage, Industry: Web-calling start-ups fear case may hamper growth of their services. The Wall Street Journal, CCXLIX(43), B4.

Analysts believe that this agreement will definitely benefit both parties. Even though Apple does not want to partner with any outside company, it partnering with Cisco will only improve its future product gears.

http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2007/corp_022107b.html?sid=BAC-RelatedNews

http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/biztech/02/23/cisco.apple.ap/index.html?eref=rss_tech\

The widespread of the witchcraft craze during this period had to do a lot with religious uncertainty. Many of the witchcraft trails have been held in places where Protestantism was victorious or in places where Catholic Protestant controversies still raged. The rich also contributed to the increase of these prosecutions. Rich people often feared from the poor that were around them and transformed them psychologically into agents of the devil. Old women were also easy scapegoats as problems arose. Many of them sold herbs, remedies, and potions for healing since they no longer were the recipients of the local charity. Women being the chief victims of witchcraft was not accidental. It was believed by the judges then that the devil chose to use women because he knew that women were inferior and that women love their sexual experiences with the devil.

Reference:
Spielvogel J. J. (2002). Western civilization: A brief history comprehensive volume
(2nd ed.). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, Thomson Learning Inc.

Well, Guglielmo Marconi in the late1800’s was eager to go wireless. During his time, the telegraph was in use but the technology then needed electrical wires to send messages over a distance. Marconi had the idea of radio telegraphy and it was in 1895 when Marconi was conducting several laboratory experiments at his father’s country estate in Italy that he succeeded in sending the first wireless signal. In 1896 Marconi manages to travel to England and it was there that he was granted the world’s first patent for a wireless telegraphy system.

Today, we love the fact that we can be mobile. The convenience of using a wireless internet, cell phones, and even Bluetooth technology makes us dread the idea of not having such services available. Thank you Marconi, you sure made communication and information sharing wirelessly possible today. No wonder we see a picture of “The Marconi” on an Italian 2000 Lire note.

Other Readings:
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