Nada Alamro

Introduction:

There is no doubt that the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) industry has been and still is changing through time. The ICT industry is going at a fast pace as the products and services of the industry continue to be upgraded or replaced frequently. For ICT businesses to succeed they need to keep up and be up to date with what is going on in the industry, they also ought to be able to predict the future trend of their business relative to the future of the industry. This forecasting prediction helps to define organizational goals, missions, objectives, and future contingencies (Shaw, 2001, p. 117).

ICT Serves National Economy:

Good businesses in general create a strategic plan which includes industry trend forecasting. ICT businesses in particular know that their industry has a great effect on the economy as a whole. The ICT industry serves all of the other industries whether it be the agriculture, manufacturer, or health and medical industry. The ICT industry is in a strong advantage since the national economy is dependent on it. It is necessary to take into consideration the effect of the ICT industry on the national economy when forecasting the ICT industry trend (Shaw, 2001, p. 176).

Five Scenario Forecasting Model:

According to the James K. Shaw, the author of the book Telecommunications Deregulation and the Information Economy, forecasting industry trend should be at least for the next upcoming 10 years. However, some might argue that the ICT industry is changing so fast that a 5 year forecast rather than a 10 year is necessary to predict industry tend. Nonetheless, Shaw has created a 5 scenario theory to help forecast the industry which includes:

1. Service Explosion Model: a scenario that entails that the “raising demand for telecommunications products and services is met with an ever-increasing number of providers able to deliver state of-the-art services” (Shaw, 2001, p. 182).
2. Corporate Consolidation Model: “a scenario greatly feared by proponents of the TRA, in which initial deregulation inevitably promotes oligopolical restructuring” (Shaw, 2001, p. 182)
3. Consumer Customization Model: a scenario which entails that the consumers will “eventually determine the emerging shape of innovation to come: (Shaw, 2001, p. 182).
4. Price Implosion Model: a scenario that is concerned with the “decreasing prices for telecommunications goods and services” (Shaw, 2001, p. 190).
5. Short-Run/Long-Run Stability: this scenario predicts that turmoil in the beginning of the decade will be followed by long term stability (Shaw, 2001. 1982).

Shaw has applied these five forecasting scenario models to the telecommunication industry between the years 2001-2010. Since we are now in the year 2007, looking at Shaw’s forecasting predictions in general it has proven that his five forecasting scenario model is relatively true for our century.

Forecasting using the S-Curve:

Forecasting new trends and the end of old trends is a necessity for any company in the ICT industry in order to continue to survive. There are several tools that can help a company forecast the ICT industry trend. One tool that is well known in business is the S-Curve analysis. The S-Curve asserts that “product innovation and improvement should become the prime concern of market participants as they move from growth to mature markets” (Shaw, 2001, p. 127).

The S-Curves analysis helps in determining prospective market trends, it is done by “taking a rigorous approach to determining the limits of current technologies and the optimal time to “jump” to a new technology” (Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2005, p. 257-258). The leading companies, the ones who succeed in the ICT industry, are able to apply the S-Curve analysis and be able to determine the right time to “jump”, to switch, to change from an old to a new technology.

It is not easy for a company to determine whether it is the best time for the customer as well as the company to switch to a new technology. Many companies in the past have hesitated to make the “jump” and eventually lost the opportunity to enter the new market. This hesitation could have been causes for several reasons according to Shaw:

• A misinterpretation of market data;
• Reticence in taking on new business risk;
• Overlooking rising competition from alternative technologies;
• Failure to satisfy consumers during periods of expanding numbers of alternative suppliers (Shaw, 2001, p. 132).

Conclusion:

An ICT company nowadays must have a strategic plan that involves industry trend forecasting. The ICT industry is a competitive one, in a sense that companies within the industry need to keep up with its fast growing pace as new innovations and companies enter the market. To keep up, a company must use the proper tools that can help them predict future industry trends, which will eventually help the company to survive in this world of increasing competitiveness.

References

Blenkhorn, D. L., & Fleisher, C. S., (2005). Competitive intelligence and global business. Westport, CT: Praeger.

Shaw, J. K., (2001) Telecommunication deregulation and the information economy (2nd ed.). Norwood, MA: Artech House Inc.

Posted by Nada Alamro at 05:11 PM | Permalink

Intelligence for Survival

Dr. Jay E. Gillette, a Ball State University professor in the Center of Information and Communication Sciences, explains in his leadership course: in the military the word “intelligence” means information. The military has a goal of gathering as much intelligence as possible. Intelligence is basically what puts anyone in a competitive advantage. The more a person knows and has intelligence meaning information, the more he or she is in a competitive advantage. The military uses intelligence to put them ahead of their enemies, ahead of other nations in general.

Business use of Intelligence
The military gathers intelligence in order to plan and forecast necessary strategies for the future. The military’s goal is to be ahead of the game. Being ahead of the game is the goal of any organization. Today, businesses all over the world are competing heavily. Businesses have become and are becoming more global as the information and communication technology (ICT) industry progresses.

Gathering of intelligence depends on the knowledge management deployment and practice of the organization. The sooner a business can gather and use intelligence in its strategic decision planning, the better the chance of its survival in the industry. According to David L. Blenkhorn and Craig S. Fleisher, the editors of the book Competitive Intelligence and Global Business:

Just as the military uses intelligence for its survival, so do businesses and specifically the leaders of these businesses, use the proper intelligence to survive in this global economy. The successful leaders are those who practice and apply competitive intelligence in order to be ahead of their competition. They use intelligence to forecast and produce the best strategic plan for their organization. According to Dr. Gillette in his 2007 leadership seminar “A good leader is one who does strategic planning that proves successful.”

Strategic Intelligence

Competitive intelligence requires strategic intelligence. Dr. Jay Edwin Gillette explains in his article Strategy Development for the Information Economy: A Practical Guide to Coordinated Action through Time issued in the Annual Review of Communication, Vol. 59 in 2006, that strategic planning “is a set of inputs and management processes” which include strategic intelligence. Strategic intelligence according to Dr. Gillette is performed using the following actions: environmental scanning, situational analysis, and S W T O (Strengths; Weaknesses; Threats; Opportunities) analysis.

Environmental Scanning & Situational Analysis

Businesses should go into depth analyzing each and every one of these actions. In the area of environmental scanning, a business should be aware of its surroundings. People in the organization should be aware, with eyes open to gather information that is useful. “The challenge is to select, filter, and organize information from your global operating environment” (Gillette, 2006, p. 10). Dr. Gillette explains that this scanning of the environment should include the following dynamic areas: economic, technical, cultural/social, and political/legal. A similar list to Dr. Gillette’s environmental scanning dynamic areas is Sheinin’s list of intelligence criteria that affect the decision environment. He explains that the decision environments of companies are dependent on the following intelligence criteria: sociological, educational, economic policies and standards, political, and geographic (Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2005, p. 63).

For a company to consider competing in a market it should evaluate these environmental conditions of the market in both a narrow and wide/global scale. A company should use situational analysis which is “a close-up of the environmental scan” (Gillette, 2006, p. 11). A company should look at itself externally; it should see where it fits in, where it is positioned in the market. A company should ask itself: What are the external situations affecting our company? (Gillette, 2006, p. 11).

S W T O Analysis

SWTO analysis is one that businesses are usually familiar with. However, many might know the SWTO as SWOT. Dr. Gillette explains that he prefers to call this analysis as “SWOT” for the following reason:
It’s important to start with an inventory of our strengths, then weigh our weaknesses…from our weaknesses we have a clear view of threats to ourselves and our organization, and we can see where our strengths give us encouragement and protection…after an honest inventory of the previous elements, we can reckon our opportunities fairly and with confidence.

Dr. Gillette also explains that ending “with an emphasis on threats” is “defensive thinking” and that ending with an emphasis on opportunities is “calling for offensive thinking.” (2006, p. 11).

Forecasting

The ability to predict the future especially in the ICT industry is what makes a leading ICT company successful. Forecasting is essential for any business. Businesses that use competitive intelligence are the ones who are much more able to better forecast their survival and the future products that their consumers need or want. A company’s life cycle goes through what is known as the S Curve, in that S Curve a company reaches its growth and then goes to a mature stage, however, it is important for companies to improve their products and become more innovative to survive: “product innovation & improvement should become the prime concern of market participants as they move from growth to mature markets” (Shaw, 2001, p. 127).

Forecasting however, is not an easy task, nonetheless, there are tools that can help with forecasting such as the S Curve Analysis and the Scenario Analysis (Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2005, p. 258). Companies in the ICT industry are particularly concerned with competitive technology intelligence (CTI). They seek to understand and know technology trends and discoveries through the use of analytical techniques of CTI:
• Technology Prospecting: involves monitoring new technology developments.
• Technology Scouting: “identifying trends and business opportunities offered by various technologies”
• Patent Analysis: “identifying trends and patterns in patent data”
• Bibliometrics: “counting the number of time a certain technology is cited in various publications.”
• Technology Forecasting: “performing extrapolative analysis of current technologies”
• Scenario Analysis : “performing non-extrapolative analysis of future technologies”
• S Curve Analysis: “taking a rigorous approach to determining the limits of current technologies and the optimal time to “jump” to a new technology”
(Blenkhorn & Fleisher, 2005, p. 257-258).

Conclusion

Competitive Intelligence is that each company needs to succeed in its economy. One must know the various ways of collecting relevant intelligence. Competitive intelligence produces strategic intelligence that can lead to the success of a company. Leaders in general should use competitive intelligence for the betterment their organizational strategic planning. Forecasting is an essential way to survive in a market. ICT companies in particular should use different ICT forecasting analysis techniques to survive in the industry.

References

Blenkhorn, D. L., & Fleisher, C. S., (2005). Competitive intelligence and global business. Westport, CT: Praeger.

Shaw, J. K. (2001). Telecommunications deregulation and the information economy (2nd ed.). Norwood, MA: Artech House Inc.

Gillette, J. E., (2006). Strategy development for the information economy: A practical guide to coordinated action through time. Annual Review of Communication (59).

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